The Bitcoin Standard: The Decentralized Alternative to Central Banking Hardcover – April 24, 2018

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The Bitcoin Standard: The Decentralized Alternative to Central Banking Hardcover – April 24, 2018

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Discussion and Reviews on Reddit

Bitcoin: only good for selling to a bigger fool later? [R]

1 day, 12 hours agoBitcoinFan7 posted submission on Bitcoin.
Sept. 13, 2019

I keep seeing these talking heads saying, "bitcoin is a hyper-speculative investment that doesn't produce anything, and people only buy it hoping to sell it to a bigger fool later for a higher price". (Both Bill Gates and Warren Buffet have said this).

If you take a step back for a minute, you realize they're criticizing people for literally just wanting to store their wealth in an asset class that can't be debased.

So there you have it, if you think saving for a rainy day is a good thing, you're actually just a speculative fool according to these people.

Is it too late to buy Bitcoin? [R]

1 day, 9 hours agoBitcoinFan7 posted submission on Bitcoin.
Sept. 13, 2019

I'm only 21 and would only be able to invest a little bit with each paycheck. Do you think it's worth the risk or should I put that money into a high yield savings or index funds?

1 day, 5 hours agoBitcoinFan7 posted comment on Bitcoin.
Sept. 13, 2019

Read these

(1) https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/modeling-bitcoins-value-with-scarcity-91fa0fc03e25

(2) https://medium.com/@vijayboyapati/the-bullish-case-for-bitcoin-6ecc8bdecc1

(3) The Bitcoin Standard

(4) Study this https://digitalik.net/btc/#

The answer is no, it is still very early. Bitcoin is just a better way of saving because your money grows over time, there is no such thing as "too late".

Don't get poor slowly [R]

2 days, 19 hours agomossyskeleton posted submission on CryptoCurrency.
Sept. 11, 2019
2 days, 14 hours agomossyskeleton posted comment on CryptoCurrency.
Sept. 12, 2019

Is Saifedean Ammous, author of The Bitcoin Standard, the body double of Hollywood actor Kirk Acevedo? [R]

6 days agobitusher posted submission on Bitcoin.
Sept. 8, 2019
1 month, 3 weeks agogizram84 posted submission on Bitcoin.
July 22, 2019

I want to understand how the associated risks can be combated by introducing a regulatory framework or alternatively, what existing legislation can this area fall under, hence, having legal remedies available in unfortunate circumstances.

Best book to give someone who doesn't know too much about cryptocurrency [R]

1 month, 3 weeks agodalebewan posted submission on Bitcoin.
July 22, 2019

I am talking something that would convince them that they should gain exposure to this asset class, and that it will grow in the future.

So far i have come across

  1. Internet of Money Vol 2
  2. Digital Gold

Any other suggestions would be welcome (: i am trying to get my extended circle interested in getting involved.

1 month, 3 weeks agodalebewan posted comment on Bitcoin.
July 22, 2019

For kids: Bitcoin Money.

For adults: The Bitcoin Standard.

Bitcoin originators 'just decided one day' to create a digital store of value and eveybody (not yet) said 'Yes' , Explain this concept. [R]

2 months agodalebewan posted submission on Bitcoin.
July 13, 2019

How did that work? And can it really expand into mass adoption?

Please leave price out of it. Volume is relevant. Transactions per year increasing is relevant. But bitcoin is still pretty niche, fractional amounts of people even know about it beyond a headline, how many people would buy into this 'hey I created money' digital asset?

Also. I'll add the rising volume is almost 99% speculative. Meaning, they don't buy the concept of 'digital store of value/currency' but rather just making money off it converting to fiat.

Step back from the moon rocket and explain how the population is going to jump aboard a newly created store of value 100% digital...in a world were hacks and internet outages is pretty common.

I guess my question is philosophical. Why would the world accept some newly created currency en mass ? You're betting on zero other options should a massive collapse happen? Government adoption? What is going to move the world into this brand new completely not time tested store of value?

2 months agodalebewan posted comment on Bitcoin.
July 14, 2019

Anybody in the bitcoin sphere delve deep into what economies actually look like and function using bitcoin as default world currency/reserve?

No. We're all just a bunch of "lambo moon boys" and none of us have any formal study or experience in the world of economics. /s

You do realise that this is a multi-billion dollar industry? A lot of very smart people have spent a lot of time and effort examining this from many angles.

If you want a good introduction to what a world based on Bitcoin might look like, I'd recommend starting off with forgetting about Bitcoin specifically and first reading some of the basic works from the Austrian economists such as Ludwig von Mises and Friedrich Hayek. Once those concepts are in your head (whether you agree with them or not), then move on to "The Bitcoin Standard" by Saifedean Ammous (which also spends over half the book not talking about Bitcoin before it finally does; for good reason).

The reason I suggest to start off with the Austrian economists is that you need to first realise that you've got a lot of assumptions that might not necessarily be grounded in reality. One of the most common that I see for example is people saying, "deflation is bad!" as a general rule without further context. I agree that under our current economic model, deflation causes significant issues, but things that are true under our current model are not necessarily true under every model.

Any experts that talk about the reality of Bitcoin adoption?

As above, Dr Ammous is an economist with multiple degrees in relevant fields. I think he qualifies as at least one kind of expert.

There's also myself, but since you don't know who I am and I have no intention of linking my pseudonym to my real name, any credentials I say that I hold are something you'd just have to trust me on, and I fully understand you have no reason to.

And also, what will psychological make people trust a newly created digital asset class? It's untested.

Everything new is untested and untrusted at some point and over time this changes. I've seen enough "new tech" in my lifetime to know that this really isn't such an issue.

And whether true or not people will assume it's 'so-called' security will eventually be compromised as just about every technology becomes obsolete and has breaches. I'm talking public opinion.

This is a combination of education and experience. Everybody knows that theoretically banks can get hacked, but they still trust their money to the bank. Even if they wrongly assume that Bitcoin is somehow able to completely compromised (and this definitely is wrong, because it's based on a false assumption of how the network operates), they only need to trust it to a similar or greater level than their bank in order to be willing to use it. And for that trust to be built, it only takes enough time of the system not being compromised.

This sure did age well [R]

2 months agoBitcoinFan7 posted submission on Bitcoin.
July 9, 2019
2 months agoBitcoinFan7 posted comment on Bitcoin.
July 10, 2019

Read The Bitcoin Standard and watch Andreas Antonopoulos YouTube channel. Educate yourself before investing.

C'mon Bitcoin...? [R]

2 months, 1 week agoBitcoinFan7 posted submission on Bitcoin.
July 7, 2019
2 months, 1 week agoBitcoinFan7 posted comment on Bitcoin.
July 8, 2019

I don't know why you're getting downvoted, you don't appear to be trolling. I would say if you are serious, read The Bitcoin Standard and watch Andreas Antonopoulos YouTube channel. Educate yourself before investing.

What would be the best article for someone who has never heard anything about crypto currency, blockchain and Bitcoin before? [R]

2 months, 1 week agoRocketLeagueTrader83 posted submission on CryptoCurrency.
July 4, 2019

I recently had a conversation about Bitcoin with a friend. He has heard of the word "bitcoin" but that is about it. What entry level article would u give him to read that introduces him to the fundamentals of Bitcoin, blockchain and co. and how it is going to impact our future lives.

#Bitcoin halving chart update: 10 months to go! [R]

2 months, 2 weeks agoBitcoinFan7 posted submission on Bitcoin.
July 1, 2019
2 months, 2 weeks agoBitcoinFan7 posted comment on Bitcoin.
July 2, 2019

The Bitcoin Standard covers it in detail

What makes bitcoin in specific so special? [R]

2 months, 2 weeks agolinuzri1976 posted submission on Bitcoin.
July 1, 2019

I understand Bitcoin is King and is what currently dictates most coins value but I hear people say btc in itself is dated and I do see some places starting to incorporate bitcoin but it’s very minimal if non existent. To a bitcoin holder what is your thought process making you believe so much in bitcoin? I also believe digital currencies are the future but people are so scared by the fact it’s not really insured and if digital currencies are the future wouldn’t governments make their own insured coin? I really like bitcoin but I feel like their are many gaps I can’t wrap my head over. Thank you for reading and please call me out on ignorance portrayed.

2 months, 2 weeks agolinuzri1976 posted comment on Bitcoin.
July 1, 2019

Read these two books to understand why Bitcoin matters :

  1. The Bitcoin Standard by Saifedean Ammous

  2. Mastering Bitcoin by Andreas Antonopolous

Daily Discussion - June 26, 2019 (GMT+0) [R]

2 months, 2 weeks agofreshandsticky posted submission on CryptoCurrency.
June 25, 2019

Welcome to the Daily Discussion. Please read the disclaimer, guidelines, and rules before participating.

Disclaimer:

Though karma rules still apply, moderation is less stringent on this thread than on the rest of the sub. Therefore, consider all information posted here with several liberal heaps of salt, and always cross check any information you may read on this thread with known sources. Any trade information posted in this open thread may be highly misleading, and could be an attempt to manipulate new readers by known "pump and dump (PnD) groups" for their own profit. BEWARE of such practices and exercise utmost caution before acting on any trade tip mentioned here.

Rules:

  • All sub rules apply in this thread. The prior exemption for karma and age requirements is no longer in effect.
  • Discussion topics must be related to cryptocurrency.
  • Comments will be sorted by newest first.
2 months, 2 weeks agofreshandsticky posted comment on CryptoCurrency.
June 26, 2019

I often see questions about why bitcoin, isn't it outdated? It took me a while but after around 6 years in this game it finally clicked. These are the advantages of bitcoin over other cryptos. (I hold 90% btc, 10% bch and I've worked for various crypto companies. Bought btc at $130)

Immutability & Security

These two are very closely related, a immutable transaction is only immutable if the security is also top notch. At the moment there is no stronger network than the strongest proof of work chain, it can't be taken down by even governments if they wanted to. Proof of stake isn't solved yet, delegated proof of stake is centralised.

Fair distribution

Bitcoin had the most fair distribution of any project out there. Everyone had a fair shot of increasing their bitcoin stack for years. Satoshi still has 1 million coins but after 10 years it's fair to say he will not use them, even if he did it's less than 5% of the supply.

Deflationary asset & scarcity

These two terms also pair together. This asset will decrease in inflation if time increases, after a few halvings most of the coins will have been mined. If you wanted to mine more right now, you can't. Mining difficulty is maybe the greatest invention of satoshi. If people wanted more gold, you can get more gold if you invested more resources. Deflationary assets also make for a great savings account, as none can be printed. (further reading by on scarcity https://www.amazon.com/Bitcoin-Standard-Decentralized-Alternative-Central/dp/1119473861)

Decentralisation

Bitcoin is the most decentralised of any project, there is no leader. People can claim blockstream is leading, but there less than a handful of devs from blockstream developing for bitcoin. That means it's politically decentralised.

Bitcoin is architectural and logically decentralised, if 90% of the nodes die it will still work. The blocksize debate is often mentioned if you talk about decentralisation, the ability for anyone to join to mine right now and in the future is important. (further reading from vitalik https://medium.com/@VitalikButerin/the-meaning-of-decentralization-a0c92b76a274)

Daily Discussion - June 26, 2019 (GMT+0) [R]

2 months, 2 weeks agofreshandsticky posted submission on CryptoCurrency.
June 25, 2019

Welcome to the Daily Discussion. Please read the disclaimer, guidelines, and rules before participating.

Disclaimer:

Though karma rules still apply, moderation is less stringent on this thread than on the rest of the sub. Therefore, consider all information posted here with several liberal heaps of salt, and always cross check any information you may read on this thread with known sources. Any trade information posted in this open thread may be highly misleading, and could be an attempt to manipulate new readers by known "pump and dump (PnD) groups" for their own profit. BEWARE of such practices and exercise utmost caution before acting on any trade tip mentioned here.

Rules:

  • All sub rules apply in this thread. The prior exemption for karma and age requirements is no longer in effect.
  • Discussion topics must be related to cryptocurrency.
  • Comments will be sorted by newest first.
2 months, 2 weeks agofreshandsticky posted comment on CryptoCurrency.
June 26, 2019

I often see questions about why bitcoin, isn't it outdated? It took me a while but after around 6 years in this game it finally clicked. These are the advantages of bitcoin over other cryptos. (I hold 90% btc, 10% bch and I've worked for various crypto companies. Bought btc at $130)

Immutability & Security

These two are very closely related, a immutable transaction is only immutable if the security is also top notch. At the moment there is no stronger network than the strongest proof of work chain, it can't be taken down by even governments if they wanted to. Proof of stake isn't solved yet, delegated proof of stake is centralised.

Fair distribution

Bitcoin had the most fair distribution of any project out there. Everyone had a fair shot of increasing their bitcoin stack for years. Satoshi still has 1 million coins but after 10 years it's fair to say he will not use them, even if he did it's less than 5% of the supply.

Deflationary asset & scarcity

These two terms also pair together. This asset will decrease in inflation if time increases, after a few halvings most of the coins will have been mined. If you wanted to mine more right now, you can't. Mining difficulty is maybe the greatest invention of satoshi. If people wanted more gold, you can get more gold if you invested more resources. Deflationary assets also make for a great savings account, as none can be printed. (further reading by on scarcity https://www.amazon.com/Bitcoin-Standard-Decentralized-Alternative-Central/dp/1119473861)

Decentralisation

Bitcoin is the most decentralised of any project, there is no leader. People can claim blockstream is leading, but there less than a handful of devs from blockstream developing for bitcoin. That means it's politically decentralised.

Bitcoin is architectural and logically decentralised, if 90% of the nodes die it will still work. The blocksize debate is often mentioned if you talk about decentralisation, the ability for anyone to join to mine right now and in the future is important. (further reading from vitalik https://medium.com/@VitalikButerin/the-meaning-of-decentralization-a0c92b76a274)

Daily Discussion - June 25, 2019 (GMT+0) [R]

2 months, 3 weeks agofreshandsticky posted submission on CryptoCurrency.
June 24, 2019

Welcome to the Daily Discussion. Please read the disclaimer, guidelines, and rules before participating.

Disclaimer:

Though karma rules still apply, moderation is less stringent on this thread than on the rest of the sub. Therefore, consider all information posted here with several liberal heaps of salt, and always cross check any information you may read on this thread with known sources. Any trade information posted in this open thread may be highly misleading, and could be an attempt to manipulate new readers by known "pump and dump (PnD) groups" for their own profit. BEWARE of such practices and exercise utmost caution before acting on any trade tip mentioned here.

Rules:

  • All sub rules apply in this thread. The prior exemption for karma and age requirements is no longer in effect.
  • Discussion topics must be related to cryptocurrency.
  • Comments will be sorted by newest first.
2 months, 3 weeks agofreshandsticky posted comment on CryptoCurrency.
June 25, 2019

I often see questions about why bitcoin, isn't it outdated? It took me a while but after around 6 years in this game it finally clicked. These are the advantages of bitcoin over other cryptos. (I hold 90% btc, 10% bch and I've worked for various crypto companies. Bought btc at $130)

Immutability & Security

These two are very closely related, a immutable transaction is only immutable if the security is also top notch. At the moment there is no stronger network than the strongest proof of work chain, it can't be taken down by even governments if they wanted to. Proof of stake isn't solved yet, delegated proof of stake is centralised.

Fair distribution

Bitcoin had the most fair distribution of any project out there. Everyone had a fair shot of increasing their bitcoin stack for years. Satoshi still has 1 million coins but after 10 years it's fair to say he will not use them, even if he did it's less than 5% of the supply.

Deflationary asset & scarcity

These two terms also pair together. This asset will decrease in inflation if time increases, after a few halvings most of the coins will have been mined. If you wanted to mine more right now, you can't. Mining difficulty is maybe the greatest invention of satoshi. If people wanted more gold, you can get more gold if you invested more resources. Deflationary assets also make for a great savings account, as none can be printed. (further reading by on scarcity https://www.amazon.com/Bitcoin-Standard-Decentralized-Alternative-Central/dp/1119473861)

Decentralisation

Bitcoin is the most decentralised of any project, there is no leader. People can claim blockstream is leading, but there less than a handful of devs from blockstream developing for bitcoin. That means it's politically decentralised.

Bitcoin is architectural and logically decentralised, if 90% of the nodes die it will still work. The blocksize debate is often mentioned if you talk about decentralisation, the ability for anyone to join to mine right now and in the future is important. (further reading from vitalik https://medium.com/@VitalikButerin/the-meaning-of-decentralization-a0c92b76a274)

REMEMBER: There will NEVER be enough BTC for all of today's existing millionaires to own just ONE. [R]

2 months, 4 weeks agoBitcoinFan7 posted submission on Bitcoin.
June 16, 2019

There will only ever be a maximum of 21 million bitcoins. Ever.

Total number of millionaires (in USD value) worldwide is around 33 million (source).

The math is simple: there simply is not enough Bitcoin in the world for every one of today's millionaires to own just ONE SINGLE BITCOIN. Much less all the future millionaires that will be born as the human population approaches 10bn (source).

If you are able to acquire even one BTC today: Enjoy the feeling.

You are an early adopter. And one of a limited few.

Edit: And nevermind the haters that will say something asinine like "my pubic hairs are limited in number too..." The point is that your pubic hairs have zero utility whereas every day Bitcoin proves its utility in as gold 2.0. That is all.

2 months, 4 weeks agoBitcoinFan7 posted comment on Bitcoin.
June 17, 2019

If you want to understand you can educate yourself. Do you know what the fundamental properties of money are and why bitcoin is by far the best form of money that has ever existed? If not, read The Bitcoin Standard, and then we can continue this conversation. Take care.

What books that are a must read for a new btc enthusiast? [R]

3 months, 2 weeks agozo_o posted submission on Bitcoin.
May 30, 2019

Hello, I’ve read the white papers, read different blogs, and pop in here off and on. What are the books that help with the aspects of purchasing ? What are exchanges ? The difference between wallets ? How to use keys to make purchases ? How to purchase ? The break down of block chain ? And so on . . . . . . . I want a clear and knowledgeable understanding of bitcoin. Any recommendations or 100% read are hugely appreciated!!!

Best way to buy Bitcoin to learn about it? [R]

3 months, 2 weeks agoslepyhed posted submission on Bitcoin.
May 27, 2019

I would like to purchase a very small amount of Bitcoin as an educational process with my children. Is there a relatively simple and best practices way for us to do that?

3 months, 2 weeks agoslepyhed posted comment on Bitcoin.
May 27, 2019

CashApp is a great way to quickly and easily buy Bitcoin. Once you have some and understand basic concepts, I highly recommend the Bisq decentralized exchange.

This is a great book for kids (and adults) to understand the "why" of Bitcoin:

https://thebitcoinrabbi.com/bitcoin-money-book/

The Bitcoin Standard (https://www.amazon.com/Bitcoin-Standard-Decentralized-Alternative-Central/dp/1119473861) is a much deeper dive into the "why" of bitcoin, and a very non-technical overview of the "how".

I have a copy, but have not yet read more than a few pages of, Grokking Bitcoin https://www.manning.com/books/grokking-bitcoin It looks promising, I'm thinking it will be a great technical explanation of the "how" for technically curious non-programmers.

Please tell me why BSV is not good (besides Wright being a full of poop). I'm still trying to understand the big blocks vs small blocks thing. On first glance the BSV folks make some compelling arguments about why big blocks are great. Thanks for the education I appreciate it. [R]

3 months, 3 weeks agogizram84 posted submission on Bitcoin.
May 21, 2019
3 months, 3 weeks agogizram84 posted comment on Bitcoin.
May 21, 2019

The short answer is that bitcoin derives it's value from being immutable. If a small group was able to change a critical consensus rule on a whim, then that coin is not immutable. Anything can be changed by a central team. You have no guarantee of future rules or behavior. So it's just like fiat money, worthless.

Also, once the block subsidy diminishes, you need fees to pay the miners for security. The shitcoin forks can only survive now because of inflation, and they have no long term plan to pay for security. The next halving will exemplify this, as they lose a large percentage of their miners.

The long answer is read this book:

https://www.amazon.com/Bitcoin-Standard-Decentralized-Alternative-Central/dp/1119473861

Bitcoin atm is a business sketchy? [R]

3 months, 4 weeks agobeowulfpt posted submission on Bitcoin.
May 19, 2019

Sorry if this is the wrong place to ask as I’m not too knowledgeable on bitcoin. I work at a vape shop with a bitcoin atm, and there are a few regulars who come daily to use it. My boss knows even less about cryptocurrency than I do so she’s worried they’re doing something sketchy. I told her I doubt they are but if they were doing something sketchy what could it be? And could our business be held liable? Sorry if this is a dumb question.

3 months, 3 weeks agobeowulfpt posted comment on Bitcoin.
May 19, 2019

Bitcoin is the internet of money. The future. Your boss should be excited and even proud to be at the forefront of it, not worried. Buy this book and gift it to your boss after you read it.

Why I downvote your "alternative" investment advice [R]

4 months agobeowulfpt posted submission on financialindependence.
May 16, 2019

Lately I've noticed a bit of a trend around here of people who are particularly bitter that index fund investing seems to be the standard, go-to investment advice, and their personal favorite type of investment doesn't get the attention they want it to.

Often times these comments get phrased in sort of a self fulfilling way like

The VTSAX cult around here will just bury any investment advice that doesn't toe the party line.

Which makes them difficult to respond to in a constructive way in the moment. So I thought I'd write up some thoughts on the matter outside of that framing.

Here's a list of all the "alternative" investment advice I see around here with an explanation for why I pretty much downvote them on site every time:

  1. Crypto - Crypto is a speculative commodity, not a value generating asset. The fact that you, or someone you know, got lucky and made a bunch of money off of it doesn't change that. [edit] The fact that the underlying technology has potential value generating applications outside of cryptocurrencies doesn't change that. You're not investing. You're gambling. Crypto has no place in a serious long term portfolio beyond some trivially small amount you keep on the side to play around with for fun (the same goes for any other speculative commodity as well).

  2. Individual stocks - Yes, Warren Buffet can pick stocks. You can't. This isn't even an argument. The research on the topic is overwhelming. The average return for individual investors who pick their own stocks is something like 1-2%. The fact that you managed to outperform the market for a year or two isn't evidence to the contrary, it's survivorship bias.

  3. Managed funds - This one gets more complicated. Yes, there are good fund managers out there who can outperform the market. But for you, the individual investor, the challenge is not in knowing that these people exist. The challenge is in being able to identify them from a) bad fund managers who match or underperform the market (the easy one), b) bad fund managers who outperform the market just due to luck, and c) good fund managers who outperform the market, but charge so much in fees that it doesn't matter. This is not necessarily an impossible task. But anyone who's done enough of their research to be able to successfully do that, is someone who knows enough that they don't need investment advice from random anonymous strangers on the internet. So it's still bad investment advice to go around doling out to random anonymous strangers on the internet.

  4. Entrepreneurship - This seems to be the topic du jour for some reason. And though I've already mentioned it, I have to once again stress the topic of survivorship bias. 80% of small businesses fail within the first year. The fact that you were successful does not mean someone else will be. Not only that, but your success is not repeatable. Someone can go out and do exactly the same thing you did and lose everything they had. Entrepreneurship is at the very upper end of the risk/reward scale. Furthermore, running a business is most definitely not for everyone. It takes a very specific kind of person working in exactly the right field for them. Running around telling people, who've given no hint of any inclination to start a business, that the really ought to consider doing so just because it will lead to riches beyond their dreams is just bad advice.

  5. Rental properties - I hesitate to include this one, because compared to the rest of this list, it's actually not a bad investment strategy. However, there is a specific, and very common, type of person who likes to pump rental properties that I will pretty much always downvote. And that's the type of person who likes to claim how much better their rental returns are relative to market returns while simultaneously glossing over things like the fact that they're: comparing leveraged returns to non-leveraged returns, not counting expenses like property taxes or maintenance, not counting risk factors like vacancy months, not counting the amount of sweat equity they put into their properties, or any combination of the above. Even taking all that into account, you like still have some small ROR premium, but it's often offset by the fact that your investment isn't liquid and isn't very diversified. Again, not a bad investment choice for a lot of people. But if you're one of the people who go around talking about how it's so much clearly better than equities and anyone who puts money into the market instead of rentals is an idiot, you're gonna get a downvote.

Edit: Just to clarify, I don't think the last two in particular are bad investments for a specific group of people. I do think they're often bad investment advice though. Particularly if you go around pumping them to people who've shown no interest whatsoever in those areas or random people you know next to nothing about. If you're responding to someone who's specifically showing interest in starting their own business or buying rentals, and if you're being honest about both the pros and cons of that investment, I have no problem.

4 months agobeowulfpt posted comment on financialindependence.
May 16, 2019

Blockchain is just a snake oil term. There's Bitcoin and there's money wasted.

Too many people are being fooled with this "Blockchain, not Bitcoin" crap. Learn the difference, it's worth it.

https://www.amazon.com/Bitcoin-Standard-Decentralized-Alternative-Central/dp/1119473861

Why I downvote your "alternative" investment advice [R]

4 months agobeowulfpt posted submission on financialindependence.
May 16, 2019

Lately I've noticed a bit of a trend around here of people who are particularly bitter that index fund investing seems to be the standard, go-to investment advice, and their personal favorite type of investment doesn't get the attention they want it to.

Often times these comments get phrased in sort of a self fulfilling way like

The VTSAX cult around here will just bury any investment advice that doesn't toe the party line.

Which makes them difficult to respond to in a constructive way in the moment. So I thought I'd write up some thoughts on the matter outside of that framing.

Here's a list of all the "alternative" investment advice I see around here with an explanation for why I pretty much downvote them on site every time:

  1. Crypto - Crypto is a speculative commodity, not a value generating asset. The fact that you, or someone you know, got lucky and made a bunch of money off of it doesn't change that. [edit] The fact that the underlying technology has potential value generating applications outside of cryptocurrencies doesn't change that. You're not investing. You're gambling. Crypto has no place in a serious long term portfolio beyond some trivially small amount you keep on the side to play around with for fun (the same goes for any other speculative commodity as well).

  2. Individual stocks - Yes, Warren Buffet can pick stocks. You can't. This isn't even an argument. The research on the topic is overwhelming. The average return for individual investors who pick their own stocks is something like 1-2%. The fact that you managed to outperform the market for a year or two isn't evidence to the contrary, it's survivorship bias.

  3. Managed funds - This one gets more complicated. Yes, there are good fund managers out there who can outperform the market. But for you, the individual investor, the challenge is not in knowing that these people exist. The challenge is in being able to identify them from a) bad fund managers who match or underperform the market (the easy one), b) bad fund managers who outperform the market just due to luck, and c) good fund managers who outperform the market, but charge so much in fees that it doesn't matter. This is not necessarily an impossible task. But anyone who's done enough of their research to be able to successfully do that, is someone who knows enough that they don't need investment advice from random anonymous strangers on the internet. So it's still bad investment advice to go around doling out to random anonymous strangers on the internet.

  4. Entrepreneurship - This seems to be the topic du jour for some reason. And though I've already mentioned it, I have to once again stress the topic of survivorship bias. 80% of small businesses fail within the first year. The fact that you were successful does not mean someone else will be. Not only that, but your success is not repeatable. Someone can go out and do exactly the same thing you did and lose everything they had. Entrepreneurship is at the very upper end of the risk/reward scale. Furthermore, running a business is most definitely not for everyone. It takes a very specific kind of person working in exactly the right field for them. Running around telling people, who've given no hint of any inclination to start a business, that the really ought to consider doing so just because it will lead to riches beyond their dreams is just bad advice.

  5. Rental properties - I hesitate to include this one, because compared to the rest of this list, it's actually not a bad investment strategy. However, there is a specific, and very common, type of person who likes to pump rental properties that I will pretty much always downvote. And that's the type of person who likes to claim how much better their rental returns are relative to market returns while simultaneously glossing over things like the fact that they're: comparing leveraged returns to non-leveraged returns, not counting expenses like property taxes or maintenance, not counting risk factors like vacancy months, not counting the amount of sweat equity they put into their properties, or any combination of the above. Even taking all that into account, you like still have some small ROR premium, but it's often offset by the fact that your investment isn't liquid and isn't very diversified. Again, not a bad investment choice for a lot of people. But if you're one of the people who go around talking about how it's so much clearly better than equities and anyone who puts money into the market instead of rentals is an idiot, you're gonna get a downvote.

Edit: Just to clarify, I don't think the last two in particular are bad investments for a specific group of people. I do think they're often bad investment advice though. Particularly if you go around pumping them to people who've shown no interest whatsoever in those areas or random people you know next to nothing about. If you're responding to someone who's specifically showing interest in starting their own business or buying rentals, and if you're being honest about both the pros and cons of that investment, I have no problem.

4 months agobeowulfpt posted comment on financialindependence.
May 16, 2019

That is wildly incorrect. That are no crypto currencies that "are far, far superior". Unless you're looking at what their scammer founders tell you.

People don't flock to Bitcoin because it was the first, they flock to it because it is the most secure network and protocol by a HUGE margin. This is technical data, not an opinion.

But in the same way, many others avoid it because they feel they missed the gains and it became tacky. Totally unaware they're still very early. There is no "superior crypto". Do your own research.

What's the sentiment here regarding Gold? [R]

4 months, 1 week agobeowulfpt posted submission on investing.
May 7, 2019

Dalio advocates for having 5% of Gold in a portfolio. Taleb mentioned he owns Gold but still doesn't know really why. What's the crowd wisdom on adding a bit of Gold is one's portfolio?

4 months, 1 week agobeowulfpt posted comment on investing.
May 9, 2019

I disagree given the data from the past 10 years and many authors disagree too and have written pretty interesting content on the topic. But if you don't believe in it you can avoid it until it becomes mainstream and inevitable, which will probably take many years.

Those examples of people investing at the wrong time and leveraging foolishly are sad and did happen, but it happens in many areas of life. The USD isn't worse just because some fools use it poorly and lose it.

Bye Gold, Buy Bitcoin !! [R]

4 months, 2 weeks agoBitcoinFan7 posted submission on Bitcoin.
May 2, 2019
4 months, 2 weeks agoBitcoinFan7 posted comment on Bitcoin.
May 2, 2019

The gold industry/gold miners can decide to mine more gold or mine less gold influencing the supply unrestricted

Please read The Bitcoin Standard, particularly pertaining to Stock-to-Flow ratio.

[OC] EU Countries by Government Debt (2006-2017) [R]

4 months, 3 weeks agobeowulfpt posted submission on dataisbeautiful.
April 24, 2019
4 months, 3 weeks agobeowulfpt posted comment on dataisbeautiful.
April 24, 2019

Bitcoin (BTC) will shift that balance in the coming decade. Fiat being printed like Monopoly money won't end well. Even the Netherlands (a strong EU country) is having 3% inflation.

Too many bank bailouts and shenanigans. People are getting tired and finding alternatives in hard money not made up by central banks.

Update on BTC scarcity compared to gold. [R]

4 months, 3 weeks agobitusher posted submission on Bitcoin.
April 23, 2019

Current world gold stock is estimated to be 185,000 US tons, the equivalent of 167829177 kilograms.

Dividing that with the number of BTC currently mined (17,660,987.5) brings us a ratio of 9.5028195337. This means that owning one BTC is as scarce as owning 9 and a half kilograms of gold.

Keeping this in mind we can look at the current price of gold (€36447 per kilogram) and get a "fair price of btc based on its scarcity" of €346,349

The stock-to-flow ratio of BTC will be rather close to gold after the upcoming halving (reference @100trillionUSD on twitter and the Stephan Livera podcast episode 67) so this price prediction seems like a good estimate for the next peak/bubble.

4 months, 3 weeks agobitusher posted comment on Bitcoin.
April 23, 2019

Ignorance of value doesn't mean it isn't valuable.

Yes , you are agreeing with me that Indians and Chinese style have a predilection for PM's ... the market determines its true value thus the price is exactly what it is worth.

They have been shorting silver since 2011 and stacking at the same time,

You need to read this book to find out why using 2 PM's as reserve assets did not work out and why silver had to be dumped--

https://www.amazon.com/Bitcoin-Standard-Decentralized-Alternative-Central/dp/1119473861

Governments and banks can and do play speculation attacks on each other and if one is using a much less rare PM they will lose such a speculation attack and destroy their economy

Shadow banking is now a $52 trillion industry, posing a big risk to the financial system [R]

5 months agobluethunder1985 posted submission on collapse.
April 11, 2019
5 months agobluethunder1985 posted comment on collapse.
April 12, 2019

thankfully we have bitcoin as an escape chute.

Bears of Reddit. What is your reasoning to believe in an upcoming bear market? [R]

5 months, 1 week agobeowulfpt posted submission on investing.
April 7, 2019

I’m trying to stay open minded and I am certainly not trying to time the market. I am trying to comprehend the market better. I see reasons why this market can keep proceeding upwards but I can’t find logical reasons for it to go downwards.

5 months, 1 week agobeowulfpt posted comment on investing.
April 8, 2019

Getting a % of the market currently in Gold or other long term store-of-value choices. Proven itself for over a decade of political, economical and technical attacks. I think we're far from having it as a Standard, but expect BTC to be part of many portfolios in the next 5-10 years. IMO a lot of people are excessively optimistic about how long it will take, but others are unwise by totally dismissing it, given the 10 years of data.

Will Bitcoin Replace Gold As Currency Standard? The Knowingly-Unknown Race [R]

5 months, 1 week agocastorfromtheva posted submission on Bitcoin.
April 8, 2019
5 months, 1 week agocastorfromtheva posted comment on Bitcoin.
April 8, 2019

'Replace' gold as currency standard? Afaik Gold and USD were decoupled under Nixon since 1971. But a reintroduction this time using bitcoin... that'd be great. That's also what Saifedean Ammous is talking about in his "The Bitcoin Standard". It's a great piece of work! Everybody interested in bitcoin should have a look into it!

Alternatives to fiat currency? [R]

5 months, 2 weeks agotzoneshard posted submission on Libertarian.
April 1, 2019

What are some alternatives to fiat currency? I’ve heard the gold standard, but with gold becoming easier and easier to create, I don’t think that would work? What are some other alternatives? Or is fiat currency the best form of currency for the world today?